A Recipe for Success or Disaster?

Gabe Kapler's success in Philadelphia as the manager of the Philadelphia Phillies will ultimately be contingent upon the ability of his players to execute and succeed within his system. After experiencing a small sample size, (just three games) the time certainly has not arrived to jump ship. However, it is time for the skipper to pump the breaks and do some self reflection on the use of his "analytical" manegerial style. Quite simply, what we saw in the first three games was unacceptable in terms of managerial and player performance. The early returns are in and Kapler's analytical recipe for success looks like anything but, rather it appears that it could be a recipe for disaster for the 2018 Phils.

A stellar pitching performance on Opening Day by staff ace Aaron Nola was ruined by the tinkering of  the rookie manager who lifted Nola after 5 1/3 innings and just 68 pitches, while leading 5-0. After that the dominos began to fall and they didn't stop falling until utility player Pedro Florimon retired the final Brave late Saturday night. This due to the depletion of the Phillies bullpen which saw Kapler hand the ball to 21 pitchers in just three games. The end result was two losses, 27 runs and more hits from the Braves than one finds on a popular Bruno Mars album. To hear Kapler say that part of their pre season strategy, was to prepare position players to pitch in situations when they run out of pitchers defies a logical approach to managing. Furthermore not having Hoby Milner warmed up and ready after calling him into the game, drew the ire of MLB umpire Jerry Lane who basically called for imposing sanctions from Major League Baseball against Kapler and the Phillies.

While Kapler's frequent hooks certainly did not enhance the Phillies chances for victory there was plenty of blame to go around. The starting pitching on both Friday and Saturday night did not pitch beyond the fourth inning as both Nick Pivetta and Vincent Velasquez worked in and out of jams before surrendering the ball to Kapler. The Phils were fortunate enough to escape with an appeal aided extra inning victory on Friday night,  but on Saturday the excessive overuse of analytical pitching formulas caught up with them in a 15-2 loss. 

There were bright spots for the Phillies in the opening three games which featured consistent and impactful offensive performances by Rhys Hoskins, Scott Kingery ,Carlos Santana and Caesar Hernandez, but the defense was absolutely woeful at times, as the Phils committed five errors in the three games.  This ultimately contributed to the carasol that allowed an abundance of Brave runs. Again a small sample size, but one in need of quick remediation, if this 2018 version is to live up to the "bold" post season expectations of its manager.

For the record, I want Gabe Kapler to succeed as the manager of our Phillies because his success will ultimately result in on field success, translate to more wins and eventually signal a return to the postseason. Moreover analytics can yield positive results. There is plenty of documentation that supports creating favorable pitcher/hitter matchups. In fact that happened well before the analyics became a household buzzword. However, Kapler needs to manage with common sense, not overuse the analytics and develop a feel for the game as it unfolds.  Computer data cannot take these human variables into account and that was glaringly obvious as both the team and its manager consistently struggled this weekend.

Gabe Kapler needs to be accountable, recognize failures, listen to his brain trust and make changes where necessary. A willingness to do this will endear him to the Philadelphia fans, failure to do this along with achieving the same results will lead to a quick exit and a vacant chair in the manager's office.